Artificial Intelligence May Doom The Human Race Within A Century

An Oxford philosophy professor who has studied existential threats ranging from nuclear war to superbugs says the biggest danger of all may be superintelligence.

Superintelligence is any intellect that outperforms human intellect in every field, and Nick Bostrom thinks its most likely form will be a machine — artificial intelligence.

There are two ways artificial intelligence could go, Bostrom argues. It could greatly improve our lives and solve the world’s problems, such as disease, hunger and even pain. Or, it could take over and possibly kill all or many humans. As it stands, the catastrophic scenario is more likely, according to Bostrom, who has a background in physics, computational neuroscience and mathematical logic.

“Superintelligence could become extremely powerful and be able to shape the future according to its preferences,” Bostrom told me. “If humanity was sane and had our act together globally, the sensible course of action would be to postpone development of superintelligence until we figure out how to do so safely.”

Bostrom, the founding director of Oxford’s Future of Humanity Institute, lays out his concerns in his new book, Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies. His book makes a harrowing comparison between the fate of horses and humans:

Horses were initially complemented by carriages and ploughs, which greatly increased the horse’s productivity. Later, horses were substituted for by automobiles and tractors. When horses became obsolete as a source of labor, many were sold off to meatpackers to be processed into dog food, bone meal, leather, and glue. In the United States, there were about 26 million horses in 1915. By the early 1950s, 2 million remained.

The same dark outcome, Bostrom said, could happen to humans once AI makes our labor and intelligence obsolete.

It sounds like a science fiction flick, but recent moves in the tech world may suggest otherwise. Earlier this year, Google acquired artificial intelligence company DeepMind and created an AI safety and ethics review board to ensure the technology is developed safely. Facebook created an artificial intelligence lab this year and is working on creating an artificial brain. Technology called “deep learning,” a form of artificial intelligence meant to closely mimic the human brain, has quickly spread from Google to Microsoft, Baidu and Twitter.

And while Google’s Ray Kurzweil has long discussed a technological “singularity” in which AI replaces humans, a giant in the tech world recently joined Kurzweil in vocalizing concern. Elon Musk, co-founder of SpaceX (space transport) and Tesla (electric cars), tweeted earlier this month:

Source: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/08/22/artificial-intelligence-oxford_n_5689858.html?ir=Science

Vairākas lietas šeit diskutablas. Galvenā doma: inteliģentiem robotiem jāsaprot, kas notiek apkārtējā vidē un ko viņi dara: jāredz sevi no malas. Viņiem būs vajadzīga apziņa. Domāt nozīmē attēlot ārējo pasauli ar kādas valodas vārdiem jeb simboliem. Saprast nozīmē lietot smadzenēs izveidotos ārējās pasaules modeļus nākotnes notikumu prognozēšanai. Lai saprastu katra vārda nozīmi, inteliģentiem robotiem jāizveido jēdzieni, t.i., katram vārdam jāpiesaista, jānoglabā atmiņā (kā cilvēki to dara) tūkstošiem personīgās pieredzes notikumu virknes. Tādēļ līdz apziņas satura pārnešanai uz datoriem vēl ļoti tālu (vairāki gadu desmiti), nākotnes inteliģentajiem robotiem dažādu valodu (matemātikas, sarunu, mākslas, kustību un izturēšanās) vārdus un jēdzienus būs jāmācās, dzīvojot sociālā vidē. Tas prasīs laiku, līdzīgu cilvēku apmācībai. Tas nozīmē, ka līdz ar jēdzieniem jaunie roboti apgūs arī situācijām pievienotās  (implicit), netiešās zināšanas – arī cilvēku morāles vērtības un rīcības šablonus.

Rakstā minētā ‘populācijas eksplozija’ (there’s the danger of a very rapid population explosion. You could copy a digital mind in a minute) gan ir apšaubāma: lai saprastu un pārspētu cilvēkus, jaunajiem inteliģentajiem robotiem būs nepieciešamas vismaz visas cilvēku maņas: šādu robotu izgatavošana un programmēšana nav viegls uzdevums. Kā jau minēju, programmēšanai vien būs vajadzīgi vairāki gadi.

Iespējams, ka kaut kad šajā gadsimtā (vai arī vēlāk) tiks atrisināta arī cilvēku apziņas pārnešana uz robotu vidi (pašlaik mēs nemaz nezinām, kā neironu savienojumos saglabāto informāciju nolasīt (un ieraudzīt to jēdzienisko saturu) un ierakstīt citā vidē, tādēļ tas var prasīt daudzus gadu desmitus). Tad cilvēki pietuvosies ‘mūžīgai’, neierobežotai dzīvībai – tādā nozīmē, ka indivīda mūža laiks nebūs ierobežots ar bioloģiskās ‘mašīnas’ īslaicīgumu 70-90 gadi. Bet neiedomāsimies, ka ilglaicīga inteliģentā robota ‘ķermeņa’ uzturēšana labā stāvoklī būs viegla – kā no mehānismu, tā no programmas viedokļa. . 

Varam teikt, ka inteliģenti roboti ir sugas homo sapiens dabisks turpinājums augstākas inteliģences apstākļos. Tas var izdoties, ja cilvēcei izdosies izvairīties no daudzajiem pašas sagatavotajiem bojāejas scenārijiem. I.V.

About basicrulesoflife

Year 1935. Interests: Contemporary society problems, quality of life, happiness, understanding and changing ourselves - everything based on scientific evidence. Artificial Intelligence Foundation Latvia, http://www.artificialintelligence.lv Editor.
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